Will Real Estate Prices Rebound?

After years of hyper appreciation, the last 18 months has seen a major cool down in the real estate market. Given this change in direction, will real estate prices rebound?

Well, of course they will. Real estate has always been viewed as a good long-term investment. Nothing has occurred that changes that basic assumption. The short-term situation is a bit rocky, but it is only because we are going through a correction after watching the real estate bubble expand and expand for six years. Predictably, the air is coming out of the bubble, but at least it did not burst.

The more relevant question for people in the real estate market is not whether prices will rebound, but when? Ah, here we enter the realm of the mystic. The Harry Potter of real estate if you will.

The bold faith truth is nobody has a clue when they will rebound. On the positive side, we are starting to see things even out a bit across much of the country. On the negative side, financing for real estate purchase is tightening up as lender begin to realize they probably should not be giving money out like candy on Halloween. In the case of subprime lenders, the game is up for many of them and bankruptcy court looms.

At its financial heart, the real estate market is just a product market. Many people fail to take this into account when sizing up real estate opportunities. A home is a place you live in and raise a family. When it comes time to buy or sell, however, it is really no different than buying or selling a car. Yes, you had some good times with it, but now it something to be moved.

If you can wrap you mind around the idea a home is a product, you have a better chance of predicting when prices will rebound. Why? Well, it all comes down to inventory. When there is more inventory than demand, prices drop. When demand out paces inventory, prices go up.

At the moment, there is an absolute ton of inventory on the market and only modest demand. During the booming real estate market, developers where building homes as fast as they could. As the market cooled off, developers kept building like there was no problem. This has resulted in a glut of properties in most cities and high population areas. Developers are now offering very attractive deals to move the homes, but the market will not rebound till most of these are gone.

It is important to understand that inventory is important, but the number of houses sold is less so. If you see reports that the number of homes being sold is picking up, it is good news. That being said, it may not be great news. Such reports can be misleading because they do not take into account the reason a home is sold. If more homes are being moved because sellers are cutting prices, it does not mean that prices are on the rise again.

Will home prices rise again? Of course. You just need to be patient and watch the inventory.